Trump’s defeat will attract $700b to Nigeria, other emerging markets, say experts

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Renaissance Capital (RenCap) Chief Economist, Charles Robertson, says a Biden victory will, in the long run, shift trillions of dollars to Nigeria and other emerging markets.

In a report to investors titled: “Biden’s victory, trillions into EM and lockdown” released on Thursday, Robertson explained that if that happens, many people will wonder why this election race was tight.

The expert at the global investment and research firm said he expects Biden to clinch victory this evening (London time) with Nevada due to give him six Electoral College votes after 5pm London time.

On the outlook for Nigeria and other emerging markets, he argued that U.S. President, Donald Trump’s possible defeat is good for emerging markets. He said global investors will start re-allocating cash to emerging markets in a big way.

He disclosed that already, Blackrock’s head of fixed income, who is responsible for $2.6 trillion of that firm’s $7.8 trillion in assets (Africa’s Gross Domestic Product is $2 trillion to put this into perspective), said they will invest more in merging market.

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“The stock of Africa’s Eurobonds only topped $100 billion in 2018, and even if it is only Blackrock’s actively managed part of the business more like $2 trillion in all asset classes (perhaps $700 billion in fixed income), that starts to shift to Emerging Markets this could be very helpful.

“Our base case is that Foreign Direct Investment will stop being a net positive for the US due to Trump’s defeat, and portfolio flows will also go to EM, and together, these will drive the $ gradually weaker in coming years,” he said.

Robertson said this becomes a self-reinforcing cycle of emerging market forex appreciation giving good returns to dollar investors, which in turn attracts more money to emerging market and in turn pushes emerging market forex stronger.

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He predicted: “Georgia is also looking like another Democrat victory (Biden is 23,000 votes behind with two per cent of the vote, about 100,000, still to be done and they have been flowing his way).

“This gives Biden 270 electoral college votes with Nevada, which is what he needs to win and 286 if he does get Georgia. With Pennsylvania votes counted yesterday – and Democrats expecting a big win from remaining mail-in votes, Biden might well end up with 309 Electoral College votes to 229 for Trump (who is likely to win North Carolina).”

Robertson explained that if that happens, many people will wonder why this election race was tight.

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He explained that talk of recounts in Wisconsin have been dismissed by a former Republican governor Scott Walker as having no chance of changing the results – previous recounts have changed voting tallies by a max 300 votes but Biden is 20,000 ahead.

Robertson said that even if challenges in any states get to Supreme Court, the suspicion was that Trump will find that his appointees do not owe him a personal favour to come down on this side.

“They will instead do what is institutionally correct. It would be surprising if there were so many successful challenges that Trump could keep the presidency. So, our base conclusion from May that Trump would lose because that’s what always happens to incumbents in a recession year, will come good,” he said.

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